The impact of the hottest steel price rise on pack

The impact of steel price rise on packaging machinery and other products cannot be ignored

recently, increasing the ex factory price of steel has almost become a consistent action of steel mills. In addition to Baosteel, Masteel and WISCO have also raised the ex factory price of steel in the future. Although Shougang did not immediately follow up, it said it would adjust its sales strategy at its own pace

analysis of steel price rise and steel industry trend in fact, since February 2006, domestic steel prices have got rid of the downward trend that lasted for 10 months and rebounded, which has continued until now. Professionals believe that the rebound in steel prices is due to the increase in market demand, and this trend will continue for some time. But in the medium and long term, the change of price depends on the growth of steel production. Key enterprises have raised prices one after another. According to Baosteel's recently announced product price policy for the third quarter, its hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices will be generally increased by 300 yuan/ton on the basis of the second quarter, and the month on month increase range of main products is 6% - 8%. Before that, Masteel also announced the price adjustment information of some steel products in June. Most of the products such as wire rod, profile, H-beam and plate will be increased. According to its conversion principle, H-beam q345t will be increased by 400 yuan/ton according to its binary slope method, integral method, parallel comparison method, voltage 1 frequency conversion method and successive comparison method, and only the price of bar will be reduced. WISCO adjusted the base price of products in June as early as April 26: on the basis of the base price in May, the main profiles, wire rods and hot-rolled steel were increased by 100 yuan/ton, the cold-rolled steel was generally increased by 200 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, the oriented silicon steel was increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the prices of rolled plates, pickled steel, galvanized, tinned, color coated and non oriented silicon steel remained unchanged in May. A staff member of the sales company of Shougang head office told that Shougang has its own rhythm and will decide on the future price strategy after convening a meeting of the heads of subordinate steel mills. However, industry insiders believe that Baosteel's price adjustment this time is relatively "moderate". In the third quarter, the price increase of cold-rolled coil is about 6%, while the price increase of hot-rolled coil is about 7%. This is significantly lower than Baosteel's price adjustment of more than 10% in the second quarter. Baosteel believes that the price adjustment in the third quarter is based on taking into account the interests of users, shareholders and the company, as well as other factors. At present, China's domestic price is at the bottom of the global steel market, and there is a new impetus to integrate with the international market price. In the second quarter, the domestic sales price of Baosteel's carbon steel products was significantly lower than that of the same quality products in the European and American markets, with a gap of about $100/ton to $120/ton, and also significantly lower than the market price of Japan, South Korea and other neighboring Asian countries, with a difference of about $50/ton to $80/ton. Driven by the trend of global steel market integration, the domestic steel market price has the power to rise. In addition, the rapid rise in the prices of energy, some ferroalloys and non-ferrous metals such as zinc has strongly promoted the manufacturing cost of steel products. Domestic prices have risen by nearly 10% this year. Since February this year, steel prices have been rising for four months. According to the statistical data of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, the average price of major steel products nationwide in the first week of February this year was 3672 yuan/ton. By the third week of May, the average price had reached 4016 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.37%. From the situation of each week, only three of the 16 weeks fell month on month, and the other 12 weeks rose except for the one week flat. From the perspective of specific varieties, the plate increased the most, from 4177 yuan per ton to 4. 736 yuan, an increase of 13.38%; The increase of profile was the lowest, from 3211 yuan to 3356 yuan, an increase of 4.52%. While building materials rose by 8.63% and pipes rose by 6.14%. From the perspective of steel prices in the international market, the global steel price index (gspi) reached 157 points on May 19, up 21 points from 129 points on February 3. The tonnage of electro-hydraulic servo experimental machines is impossible to be small 71 o'clock. This not only exceeded the annual high of 156 points set on April 8 last year, but also was only one step away from the previous high of 161 points (October 2004). Considering the rise in iron ore prices, some international analysts even predict that the international steel price will rise by 19% in the second half of the year (consistent with the rise in iron ore prices). Maozuhong, an analyst in the steel industry of United Securities, also believes that it is possible for the international steel price to reach a record high. The main reason for the growth of market demand is that the price of steel is determined by the market. Although factors such as cost, transportation, inventory and even the international situation will affect it, fundamentally speaking, its price change is determined by the change of supply and demand. In terms of cost, the price of iron ore is an important factor affecting the expectation of steel price at present. At present, the international negotiations on iron ore prices are drawing to a close, and some foreign steel enterprises have accepted a 19% increase, while domestic price increases are also expected to be large. According to the analysis of insiders, Baosteel's recent increase in the ex factory price of steel in the next quarter may be due to the fact that the price of iron ore will rise. Maozuhong believes that demand growth is the main factor affecting the rise in prices, which includes not only the demand brought about by the increase in fixed asset investment, but also the demand driven by the expansion of credit and consumption growth. Zhangxuewu of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission believes that from the perspective of demand, although the steel demand was also restrained by the national macro-control policy last year, it has entered this year. Driven by economic growth, demand increased rapidly. Statistics show that in the first quarter, China's fixed asset investment increased by 27.7% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year; Investment in some industries with large steel consumption also increased rapidly, including 43.8% in transportation equipment manufacturing and 71.1% in general equipment manufacturing. Therefore, it can be considered that the increase in demand has provided support for the recovery of steel prices. He also said that from the perspective of supply, with the gradual implementation of the development policy of the steel industry and the implementation of production restriction measures in the steel industry, the expansion momentum of domestic steel production capacity has been effectively curbed since the second half of last year. Investment in the steel industry fell by 2.2% in the first quarter of this year; Domestic steel production increased by 17.6% year-on-year, down 6.2 percentage points from the same period last year, and the oversupply situation in the steel market has improved. According to the analysis of insiders, the rising production costs of enterprises and the rapid rise of steel prices in the international market are also factors that promote the recovery of domestic steel prices. Data show that since this year, the international crude oil price has increased by about 24%, while the coal price has been running at a high level, and the transportation price has also increased. At the same time, the increase in steel prices in the international market is also greater than that in China. The long-term rise has not been determined. The recovery of steel prices has lasted for nearly four months. What will be the trend in the future? According to the analysis of insiders, Baosteel's price has always been a weathervane in the domestic market. Therefore, Baosteel's increase in ex factory prices means that there is still a wave of increase in domestic steel prices. A person in charge of China's iron and steel industry also told that there is still a large price difference between the domestic market and the international market, and there is still room for domestic steel prices to rise. According to the analysis of relevant people, as the factors supporting the price rise will still play a role, it is expected that the domestic steel price will continue to rise slightly in the first half of the year. However, he also stressed that there is still structural overcapacity in domestic steel production capacity. The rapid increase in steel demand and the decline in inventory are characterized by stages. The basis for price rise is relatively fragile, and steel prices may fluctuate in the later stage. For example, the growth rates of crude steel in each month of the first quarter were 16.6%, 17% and 20.1% respectively, and the growth rates of steel were 20.9%, 21.7% and 21.8% respectively, showing a trend of accelerating growth month by month. The international steel production is also gradually increasing. According to the statistics of the international iron and Steel Association, from January to March, the crude steel output of 61 major steel producing countries and regions in the world increased by 4.9%, 5.3% and 7.0% respectively year-on-year, also accelerating month by month. Among them, the daily average output of global crude steel in March was 3.215 million tons, a record high. In addition, the strengthening of economic regulation and control by the state will have a certain impact on the growth of steel demand. For example, in view of the possible overheating problems in some fields, the state raised the loan interest rate. Therefore, once the excess capacity is converted into actual supply, the price rise will be restrained. Optimistic about the development prospects of the industry, some steel researchers are still optimistic about the development prospects of the steel industry. This is not only because China is still in the stage of heavy industrialization, but also because China still has a long way to go in the process of urbanization, and the demand for infrastructure investment is still huge. Therefore, in the medium and long term, China's steel demand is very huge. Mao Zuhong predicted that the industry will continue to improve as the rise in iron ore prices is digested and the demand recovers. According to his survey, the performance of steel enterprises in the second quarter will be further improved, far better than expected. He also believes that the valuation level of Listed Companies in the steel industry in the domestic market is low against the background of the continuous decline in the early boom. While domestic capital looks down on the steel industry, international industrial capital buys domestic steel enterprises at a premium. Stimulated by M & A factors, the value of the domestic steel industry will be further highlighted. Analysis of influencing factors of domestic steel market the domestic steel price has continued to rise for more than two months. At present, due to the further shortage of resources, the market price of individual domestic steel varieties has increased significantly. For example, wire products, the resources of the country have been in a state of tension, and the market price rebounded significantly last week; In addition, steel mills have generally raised the ex factory prices of steel varieties such as varieties of steel and plates, thus promoting the rise of market prices. The international steel market price is still strong, and the export situation of domestic steel production enterprises is good. In April, China's import of 1:3 steel fell 35% year-on-year. The principle of 3D printing and forming mainly includes FDM type/sls type/sla type, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5%. Due to the shortage of international billet resources and the rise of market prices, the billet export of domestic steel mills increased rapidly. The billet export in April increased by 60% compared with March, while the imported billet decreased by 71% compared with the same period last year and 20% compared with March, indicating that the international economic recovery has an obvious pulling effect on the consumption of steel products. First, the rapid growth of domestic steel demand will continue to drive the recovery of steel prices. In the first quarter, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 27.7% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Although the state prevented the investment from growing too fast by raising loan interest rates and other measures in April, the invested projects will still drive the growth of steel demand for a long time, thereby driving the recovery of steel prices. According to the prediction of the international iron and Steel Association, China's steel consumption will increase by 13% this year, reaching 356 million tons, accounting for 32% of the total global steel demand in 2006. India's steel demand in 2006 and 2007 will also show a high growth rate, which is expected to be 8% in both years. In other parts of the world, the growth rate of steel demand in 2006 will be about 4.7%, that is, the demand will increase by about 33million tons; In 2007, the demand growth rate will slow down, and the growth rate is expected to be 2.7%. Second, the rise in steel prices in the international market will also have a greater impact on domestic steel prices. Since the beginning of this year, the economic growth of major developed countries and regions such as the United States and the European Union has been in good condition, and the steel pendulum impact has been solid