Replacing the demographic dividend with the hottes

2022-08-11
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Replacing demographic dividend with reform dividend requires significant and far-reaching institutional change

replacing demographic dividend with reform dividend requires significant and far-reaching institutional change

China Construction machinery information

Guide: government investment plays a smaller and smaller role in stimulating economic growth, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector. ◎ history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery cannot increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, showing its fragile side

government investment plays a smaller and smaller role in promoting economic growth, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector

◎ history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery cannot increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, showing its fragile side

◎ China's economy is facing the long-term pressure of de stocking, de capacity and de leveraging. This process will be relatively long, and the digestion capacity of China's economy is much lower than before

◎ China needs to reform in many fields. Logically speaking, it should be easy before difficult, simple before complicated, quench the thirst of the near before diverting water from the far, and low cost before high cost

the prediction that the demographic dividend is about to disappear, China's economy will enter a slow growth has quickly become a reality, and the economic downturn is no longer a temporary phenomenon. However, for an economy with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ranking nearly 90 in the world and a urbanization rate of just over 50%, there is still a lot of theoretical space for future development. At present, what we need to do is to optimize the configuration structure of resource @c startup detection and improve the output rate, that is, to create reform dividends

the economic adjustment shows a long-term trend

the recent market expectations for the RRR reduction have failed again and again, but it does not mean that the monetary policy is not willing to relax, but that the demand has declined. The new credit in July was only more than 540 billion yuan, lower than expected. Bank lending did not exceed the upper limit of scale, so reducing the reserve requirement is of little significance. As for interest rate reduction, there is room in theory, but the market interest rate (including private interest rate and real loan interest rate) is still very high, so even if the effect of interest rate reduction is limited, in fact, the effect of monetary policy is usually better than that of easing. Therefore, judging from the implementation of monetary policy in the previous seven months, it can be evaluated as loose in stability and poor effect

fiscal policy has played a positive role in maintaining the stability of the economy. For example, in order to make up for the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment, investment in water conservancy construction has increased rapidly, and investment in high-speed rail has also resumed growth. However, the role of government investment in stimulating economic growth is becoming smaller and smaller, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector. In May, the national development and Reform Commission approved a number of investment projects, but it only caused a little spray. Facing the overcapacity of a large number of heavy chemical industries such as iron and steel, it is difficult to form effective investment even if new projects such as Baosteel and WISCO are approved. At present, many local governments have launched huge investment plans, but the financing is a big problem. Even if the funds are in place, a large number of liabilities will eventually form, hindering the healthy development of the future economy

in terms of external demand, although the signs of U.S. economic recovery are becoming more and more obvious, the rise of the U.S. economy has not brought too many opportunities to China's export industry. On the one hand, the United States wants to revitalize the manufacturing industry to reduce the unemployment rate, on the other hand, it imports from lower cost markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries

history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery cannot increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, which also shows its vulnerability. In this way, China's economy is indeed facing the long-term pressure of de stocking, de capacity and de leveraging. This process will be relatively long, just as the current process of de stocking is also longer than before, indicating that the digestion capacity of China's economy is much lower than before

reform dividend or show next year

demographic dividend is an economic term, which refers to the process of the declining proportion of the dependent population. At present, it has reached the inflection point from rising to falling, that is, the demographic dividend is about to disappear. Reform dividend is a term derived from the demographic dividend, indicating that there is still room for further improvement of China's system. Over the past decade or so, there have been far fewer major reform events in China than in the 1990s, perhaps because the existing system and structure can still maintain high-speed economic growth. Of course, this also includes the advantage of demographic dividends. With the decline of economic growth, the existing structural problems and institutional defects are becoming increasingly prominent, which will form a forced reform mechanism

the areas that China needs to reform in the future include all aspects of structural imbalances that have occurred in the past 30 years of rapid economic growth. From a large perspective, there are imbalances in development and income distribution between urban and rural areas and between regions, between the government, enterprises and residents, between the central and local financial distribution, between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, between enterprises and banks, the gap in the rate of return on capital, the huge gap between high-income groups and low-income groups, the contrast between high economic growth and the lagging social security system, etc. There are many areas that need to be reformed. Logically, it should be easy before difficult, simple before complicated, quench the thirst of the near before diverting water from the far, and low cost before high cost

this year's frequent financial reform is in line with the above logic: first, most of the reforms do not need to formulate a cumbersome rotating radius of 4mm The operating rules in the experimental process, such as asymmetric interest rate reduction and giving room for deposit interest rates to rise, are essentially market-oriented reform of interest rates, which means that banks can feed enterprises and quench their thirst. Moreover, this reform has high implementation efficiency and low operation cost. Second, the essence of financial reform is to relax financial regulation and break financial monopoly, which belongs to the total amount reform of the system. Generally, it does not involve individual cases, and it is not easy to be resisted by a vested interest whose indication error is verified once, and the validity period is 1 year

the difficulty of the next reform lies in the reform of the fiscal and tax system. For example, the reform of the income distribution system is an important part of the reform of the fiscal and tax system. It was previously reported that the overall plan will be introduced in the second half of the year, but so far, the discussion draft of the reform plan has not been seen, which is estimated to be difficult to be introduced as scheduled. Historically, the general major reform initiatives were launched at the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. Of course, the most famous is the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee, which launched China's reform and opening up. The Third Plenary Session of the 12th CPC Central Committee, such as displacement sensors, will launch urban centered economic system reform, while the last third plenary session was to promote rural reform and development, including the pilot land system reform

based on this calculation, it is estimated that the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee will start the reform of the fiscal and tax system, and the discussion and formulation of the reform plan of the fiscal and tax system, such as the introduction of new taxes such as the tax sharing reform, the personal income tax reform related to income distribution, the property tax and even the inheritance tax, should initially take shape before the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. The fiscal and tax system reform is more difficult than the financial system reform, but it is more direct and targeted for improving the economic structure. If China's income gap can be narrowed through reform, it can effectively expand domestic demand and economic transformation. Moreover, the reform of the fiscal and tax system will inevitably involve the reform of the administrative system. Once the reform of the administrative system is launched, it means that it will be a major and far-reaching reform. If it can be smoothly promoted, the reform dividend can be expected

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